GraydonCreditsafe launches its renewed Credit Scorecard for the Dutch market

Fully updated with more data and very high predictive power.

View and follow all information and news about the introduction of the updated GraydonCreditsafe Credit Scores here.

The launch date is November 17, 2023. Read all about the planning and details of our updated Credit Scores, which will help you make even better risk assessments.

Creditsafe's Credit Scorecard calculates the statistical probability of a company getting into financial trouble. The Scorecard is validated and checked daily so that we can continue to guarantee its quality, including high predictive power.

Every so often, it is necessary to update and adjust these scores. This keeps them performing optimally. Nothing new really.

With the acquisition of Graydon by Creditsafe Group, the depth, interconnectivity, and quality of the Dutch database has increased enormously. Among other things, the large volumes of payment experiences from both parties have been merged, and we now have better insight into international business connections to and from Dutch companies. The expansion of the database is an important step towards developing a higher-quality Credit Scorecard.

Exceptional circumstances in the past few years, such as Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic directly and indirectly, affected the creditworthiness of companies. The updated Credit Scores '23 are therefore extra important and deliver a strong improvement in the model's performance: stability, accuracy, and predictive power. And you will be able to benefit from all of that!

The Credit Score and Credit Limit you use every day within all our products are the result of an advanced process including statistical regression models, algorithms and the analysis and processing of huge amounts of data over long periods of time. 

For various audiences, we offer information on the updated Scorecards in the form of general content, FAQs, milestones, and multiple score guides and documents. For both credit or risk managers, and more experienced experts in risk modelling.

Renewed Scorecards

The same and familiar Credit Scores with now even higher predictive power and accuracy.

Increased predictability through updated logistic regression models

Through continuous improvement and the update of our generic statistical credit models (stepwise logistic regression), more data and tightening of the default definitions, the updated Credit Score provides an even sharper indication of the likelihood of a company getting into financial trouble.

More company data from Graydon and Creditsafe together with more history and more trade payment data

Based on new data, all available variables were analysed, better differentiated and grouped by company characteristics within new scorecard segments. This allows an even better use of all available data on Dutch companies.

Highest industry standards, experience and international harmonisation

Creditsafe's Group Analytics has a wealth of experience with more than 120,000 clients and its own Credit Scorecards in all Creditsafe countries. By harmonising methodologies and Probability of Default mapping tables, our Credit Scores are highly comparable with corresponding qualities based on stability, accuracy and predictability.

100% coverage, including companies with missing or different filing obligations

By applying specific policies to the standard scorecards, we also consider 'special' companies - think of non-limited companies, start-ups, Government-owned companies, hospitals, etc. - which allows us to make good risk assessments based on exceptions and available data.

Improved predictive power through more accurate differentiation between business segments

No two companies are identical, but most show similar signs of insolvency within the population.

To enhance the differentiation and performance of the Credit Scorecard, the total business population (all registered companies in the Netherlands) is segmented. 

The purpose of segmentation is to define a set of subpopulations that, when modelled individually and combined, will rank credit risk better than a single model on the total population in each country.

The different segmentations

Companies with
financials:

  • Small
  • Average
  • Large

Companies without financials:

  • Companies with trade payment data
  • Companies without trade payment data

New
companies:

  • Companies not older than 3 years, which have not (yet) filed financial statements.

Creditsafe is one of the world's largest providers of business and financial information with direct access to business information in 200 countries with in-house data in most Western European countries, the United States, Canada and Japan. 

The acquisition of Graydon by Creditsafe Group has only further increased the depth, interconnectivity, and quality of the Dutch database. This has enabled us to classify business populations across multiple countries into more different business segments, making it possible to develop a more predictive Credit Scorecard.

What are the implications for customers still using Graydon services (Insights, APIX or otherwise)?

Read here about the benefits and implications of the new GraydonCreditsafe Credit Scores.

You are still using existing Graydon products; Insights, Graydon APIX or other Graydon services with the Graydon scores.

You are using Creditsafe products: Online (Website Monitoring and Credit Reports), APIs, Check&Decide or other Creditsafe services with Creditsafe Credit Scores.


You are not yet taking advantage of all the additional and new features offered by GraydonCreditsafe.

Thanks to Creditsafe’s acquisition of Graydon, we have more data, knowledge, and solutions that we are happy to offer to all our customers. 

Examples include the introduction of international linkages with Dutch companies, collectively much more payment data, international network (200 countries online, 44 countries with International Monitoring) and much more. Besides, we have made all services (credit, compliance and marketing) available on the GraydonCreditsafe platform.

No maintenance and product development are taking place on existing Graydon platforms.

All new services and product enhancements will be introduced on the new GraydonCreditsafe platforms. From Check&Decide to Compliance Alerts in all our reports, as well as the further development of indicators and scores.

The renewed and improved GraydonCreditsafe Credit Score will therefore only be launched within the Creditsafe platforms and products (GraydonCreditsafe).

Switch quickly to take advantage of all the new services and expanded data, thanks to the merging of Graydon and Creditsafe.

  • You are using Graydon Insights: Quickly switch to GraydonCreditsafe's web portal. Simple and easy with many extra features and always with the latest developments.
  • You are using the Graydon API (APIX): Switch to Connect APIs and standard Plug-ins from Creditsafe (GraydonCreditsafe) for state-of-the-art fast APIs with all our available data and the functionalities you need.
  • You are using other Graydon services, such as Master Data Management: Ask your account manager about the possibilities of replacing it with GraydonCreditsafe services.


As of 31 March 2024, all Graydon services will be discontinued and transferred to GraydonCreditsafe platforms.


You are a Creditsafe customer and/or you use Creditsafe products

You will automatically receive the new Credit Scores (and Limits) in all Creditsafe products, both in the online Credit Reports and in the APIs and plug-ins.

In terms of appearance, nothing changes about the scores and limits, only the Credit Scorecard has been updated and improved, making the outcomes even more up-to-date, stable and predictive. When the new Credit Scorecard is implemented, ratings of companies will be subject to change as of that date.

Company Monitoring

You may have many companies in Monitoring. This means that some of those companies are likely to receive a new score. 

We will temporarily suppress the Monitoring Alerts (emails) at the time the new scorecards are deployed to prevent you from being potentially inundated with alerts and emails. You can, of course, always find the changes in your Monitoring dashboards.

Automated Credit Decisions

Should you use our Check&Decide services or make your own automated credit decisions based on our APIs, it is wise to consider the potential impact of the new Credit Scores on your automated credit or underwriting/decision model. 

Please read the detailed documentation on our scorecards carefully, when available. You can always contact us for support.

You are still using existing Graydon products; Insights, Graydon APIX or other Graydon services with the Graydon scores.
You are using Creditsafe products: Online (Website Monitoring and Credit Reports), APIs, Check&Decide or other Creditsafe services with Creditsafe Credit Scores.

The renewed GraydonCreditsafe Scorecard will go live on November 17

In all GraydonCreditsafe products and platforms (website and APIs).

Optimisation classification of business population into 6 segments.

Unchanged look and feel: PoD-%, score 1-100 and score-banding A to D.

Scorecard design and analysis: Stepwise Logistic Regression.

Strong performance-indices: stability, accuracy and discriminatory power (including Gini).

Creditsafe Credit Scores remain consistent: same format and interpretation.

The definition of 'default' is based on the combination of bankruptcies and outstanding payments.

Point in time-model including optimisation of trend elements.

Additional policies for specific business classification (e.g. semi-government, start-ups)

Adjustment of the cut-off limit from 37 to 30 to align with international standards.

All scores and limits are delivered from the renewed Scorecard. There is no action required from you. This is because the appearance of our (Creditsafe) Credit Scores remains unchanged. However, some companies may be rated differently when the renewed scorecard is introduced. 

This may impact debtor files you have in Monitoring or if you make automated credit decisions based on the Credit Score. You will receive more information on this, and you can also contact us at any time.

The factors affecting a company's creditworthiness

How does GraydonCreditsafe calculate a new Credit Score for a company?

GraydonCreditsafe accurately identifies the factors that have a strong correlation with business failure.

From small local businesses to large multinational corporations, the factors that influence or indicate a company's eventual bankruptcy differ by company size and industry. 

To increase the predictability and stability of our credit score, GraydonCreditsafe segments all companies within a population with available information. 

Each Credit Scorecard uses different criteria to determine the credit score, with the importance of each factor varying based on its statistical relevance in relation to a business failure within a 12-month period.

Official publications

Address changes

Director changes

Industries

Filed annual accounts

Corporate linkages

Company size

Company types

Payment data

Documentation

Here you will find all available documentation on the new GraydonCreditsafe Credit Scorecard.

Client Summary

Self-assessment

One Pager

Scorecard guide

Webinar

Download Client Summary

An overview of the key details of the renewed Credit score model.

Complete Self-assessment

Assess the impact of the renewed Credit score model on your current products.

Download One Pager

To ensure you are prepared to transition from the current to the updated Credit Scores, we have outlined the benefits and impact for you.

Download brochure

What is a Credit Score Model, and why should it be updated? You can read this and more in our brochure.

Register Webinar

Maximizing Predictive Power: Discover the Benefits of GraydonCreditsafe's Renewed Credit Scorecard.

Client Summary
Self-assessment
One Pager
Scorecard guide
Webinar

FAQ


Do you have another question? Contact our service team at [email protected].

Why is GraydonCreditsafe changing its scorecards?

It is perfectly normal for credit reporting agencies to review and adapt their scoring models to changing economic conditions, available data and business information. When new data is available, we should take the opportunity to leverage this data and further improve predictability. 

We also need to be vigilant in monitoring market trends and ensure that our forecasting models reflect current developments. With ongoing changes in the economic, social and political environment, some indicators that now predict failure are likely to change in the coming years. 

GraydonCreditsafe continuously improves its scorecards to reflect current risk factors that have emerged within local economies. By assessing the entire business population, we have refined and confirmed the indicators that generally apply to commercial stability, and what is predictive of a struggling business.

How do I know if the new Scorecard is right for my business?

The GraydonCreditsafe Scorecard is built to assess the entire business population of the country in question, using data owned by GraydonCreditsafe, as well as partly from third parties. 

Our assessment of this data produces a credit score that reflects the likelihood of business failure in the next 12 months. In addition, the Credit Limit is designed to provide a recommended maximum credit amount for this company, based on numerous financial indicators.  

Our scoring models are designed to complement any business, but we also offer customised analytical services. Of course, all companies have unique business models, strategies, and objectives. To help companies gain greater clarity on their commercial landscape and opportunities, our world-leading analytics team has been commissioned to build several custom analytical models for companies in many countries. 

For more information on our customised services, please contact your account manager.

Should I change anything in my system(s) when you make the changes?

You do NOT need to make any changes to your GraydonCreditsafe account, app or API when the new scorecard is launched. All changes will be made automatically.

Are all companies scored using the same algorithm?

No, depending on the type of company, size and country, the algorithm is adjusted.

What is the 'Probability of Default' (PoD)?

The Probability of Default (PD or PoD) is a mathematical calculation that indicates the probability of a company going bankrupt or becoming insolvent within 12 months from the date of application for a particular credit. 

GraydonCreditsafe's scorecard gives a score between 1 and 100 for highest and lowest risk, respectively. This scale was constructed using the probability of default (PoD) outcome.

Why is the Probability of Default important?

The PoD will ultimately tell you exactly how stable a company is and, more importantly, the associated credit risk of doing business with it.

The GraydonCreditsafe scorecard gives a score between 1 and 100 for the highest and lowest risk respectively. This scale is created based on the outcome of the PoD, expressed as a percentage. The higher the credit score, the lower the PoD percentage and vice versa.

The development of the new model and the new PoD table means that it would be incorrect to compare scores on a like-for-like basis. The underlying statistics have changed, the scorecard has changed and, as a result, the meaning of the scores from 1 to 100 has changed. This may result in a company receiving a lower score on the 1 to 100 scale than before, but a lower associated risk of default or failure.

Thus, a company's score may drop from 70 to 60, but at the same time its credit limit may increase because the associated risks to the company are lower. It is important to note that this does not mean that all company scores will decrease, as some companies will receive a higher score than before. However, when a decrease in score is observed, reference should be made to the changes in the PoDs.

What is the difference between the old and the new scorecard?

There are a number of differences between the old and new scorecards. All the changes have been made to improve the accuracy of the scores so that they are a true reflection of the risk associated with a company.

Crucially, our scorecard accurately calculates a company's probability of failure based on current market conditions. This is why GraydonCreditsafe used the most up-to-date business information available when developing the new scoring model. As the economy and market conditions change from year to year, the calculations behind the score naturally have to be adjusted to ensure an accurate prediction.

Thanks to a deeper segmentation of the companies, we have achieved a more representative spread of companies across the different risk classes. Companies classified as low risk in our Dutch scoring model generally have a lower probability of failure than the previous scoring model. Similarly, the high-risk segment of the population, with a score below 30, generally has a slightly higher probability of failure. This method was introduced to give a real picture of high-risk scenarios and to avoid stifling your business by rejecting growth opportunities.

The features of the new scorecard compared to the old one are as follows:

- Predictive power, stability and accuracy is even stronger 
- Added more and up-to-date data sets that improve score quality
- Added more and new variables to the scorecards with more history and payment experiences
- Optimised business population classification to 6 segments (instead of 5).  
- Improved scorecards for new businesses and public organisations by setting additional policies for specific business classes (e.g. semi-government, start-ups) 
- Scores harmonised with international Creditsafe scoring methodology; Cut-off limit adjusted from 37 to 30

How often does GraydonCreditsafe change scorecards? When will it change next time?

Scorecards are not updated on a schedule or a fixed period. Besides the fact that the last update was a couple of years ago, the joining of forces of Graydon and Creditsafe also provided a great opportunity to update the scores.  

The GraydonCreditsafe scorecards are continuously monitored to gain insight into the performance of the scorecards over time. As new economic changes and trends emerge, they inevitably cause small shifts in which factors are most indicative of a company's failure and stability. Our scorecard monitoring allows us to measure these shifts, and determine whether the predictability of our scores remains above an acceptable threshold. 

If and when the predictability of a scorecard begins to degrade, we make it a priority to re-evaluate the data we have, the variables we measure and the weightings we assign to each variable. With the development of even more robust scorecards we have strengthened our ability to thoroughly assess the predictability of variables over time and adjust the model to economic changes if necessary.

What will happen when the new Dutch scorecard launches?

You do NOT need to make any changes to your GraydonCreditsafe account, App or API when the new scorecard is launched. All changes will be implemented automatically. 

We will disable Score Change Alerts within Monitoring on the day of the launch to avoid a disruptive number of alerts being emailed to customers. You can export a list of portfolio changes, including score changes, from your Monitoring account the day after the launch of the scorecard.

Why are there new scoring categories?

This is because we want to create some uniformity, based on the international rating, across all Creditsafe entities where a new scoring model has been launched. By setting the cut-off limit internationally at 30, it is quicker to see internationally whether a company is creditworthy.

Why has my credit score (and limit) and those of my customers and suppliers changed?

At GraydonCreditsafe, we are fortunate to have an extensive and ever-growing database of up-to-date company information. As we expand and increase the wealth of data we possess, we have to evaluate whether this new data contains information that is indicative of the stability or future insolvency of companies. We also need to revalidate whether previous indicators in the existing data still hold true. In both cases, additions and adjustments to the scoring model are likely to be needed to ensure high predictability. 

So when a new scorecard is adjusted, there will inevitably be some shifts in the business credit score and recommended credit limits. We should also not forget that the Probability of Default has become an important and compelling element in the updated scorecard, resulting in a new score indication for many businesses.

What does the score predict?

GraydonCreditsafe's scorecard calculates the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the next 12 months. The calculation is converted into an easy-to-understand score between 1 (highest risk) and 100 (lowest risk). We consider a company with a score below 30 to be high risk and therefore uncreditworthy, while a company with a score above 50 has a lower risk of bankruptcy. 

GraydonCreditsafe considers the following criteria as the definition of failure: 

For companies with annual figures: 

- Bankruptcy  

For companies without annual figures: 

- Bankruptcy
- 3 or more payments, paid at least > 91 days later than the payment deadline

Where can I see how the score is built?

Our Scorecards are developed based on statistical analysis of the entirety of the Dutch business population. To approach the highest possible predictability, we divided this populairon in segments of lookalike companies, allowing us to better distinguish between companies within these segments. This distinctiveness is crucial for high predictive power. We use Stepwise Logistic Regression to calculate the Probability of Default, which is then converted into a score from 1 to 100.

Besides the Credit Scores that indicate the likelihood of bankruptcy, we also offer the Credit Limit. The Credit Limit is the individual amount of credit that GraydonCreditsafe considers feasible for a company to meet its payment obligations. The Credit Limit value is partly determined by the outcome of the statistical model.

Important steps towards November 17, 2023

What are the key milestones and actions leading up to the introduction of the updated Credit Scores?