US Tariffs Are Forcing EU Businesses to Rewrite Their Global Trade Playbook: How Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East Are Emerging as Strategic Alternatives

Our discoveries suggest a compelling pattern: whilst certain EU enterprises are advancing rapidly with contingency strategies to cushion immediate trade setbacks, others may be utilising this disruption as a catalyst for challenging yet strategic manoeuvres to diminish long-term trade reliance on the US. These organisations aren't merely responding; they appear to be fundamentally repositioning. Here's a concise examination of the most affected sector in major EU markets:

Earlier this year, Arnd Franz, CEO of German automotive giant Mahle, issued a stark warning: global car production is decelrating under the weight of tariffs combined with prohibitions on German combustion engines. With major trade agreements stalled, factory lines frozen across North America, and clients reducing orders, the industry is already teetering the brink of a significant slowdown.

The trade turbulence manifests itself in the conduct of German enterprises which are maintaining considerably closer scrutiny on both existing and prospective US clients and suppliers. Our intelligence reveals a dramatic 196% spike in credit report views on US companies by German businesses in April 2025, shortly after the tariff announcements emerged. This potentially signals heightened risk consciousness and a more cautious stance towards trans-Atlantic commerce.

What's particularly noteworthy is the emerging interest in India's automotive manufacturing ecosystem. Report views on Indian automotive suppliers and manufacturers climbed 67% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year, potentially reflecting German businesses' recognition of India's expanding capabilities in precision engineering and component manufacturing. With India positioning itself as a production alternative through initiatives encouraging foreign investment in automotive manufacturing, German firms may be evaluating partnerships that could provide both cost advantages and geopolitical risk mitigation.

Meanwhile, Southeast Asian markets are experiencing similar attention. Vietnam's automotive sector, in particular, has witnessed a 112% increase in credit report views from German businesses, possibly signalling interest in the country's growing manufacturing infrastructure and preferential trade agreements with both the EU and other major economies.

Whilst pharmaceuticals, Ireland's largest export commodity to the US, remain largely exempt from tariffs, Ireland's food and beverage exporters are scrambling for solutions to navigate the transformed landscape.

French businesses occupy a relatively insulated position in the tariff tempest. With merely a 1.1% GDP exposure to US tariffs (substantially below Ireland's 9.7% and Germany's 2.21%), France has been spared the worst of the trade fallout. That buffer originates largely from its robust intra-EU export connections and a more domestically anchored, less export-dependent economy.

Creditsafe's monitoring risk intelligence may reflect the broader trend towards intra-European trade. French businesses ranked amongst the top three most monitored economies by key European trade hubs, including Italy, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, and even the UK. Simultaneously, French firms steadily increased their own monitoring activity across these same markets. This may signal a deliberate strengthening of regional trade ties, as businesses reinforce familiar, lower-risk partners within Europe to hedge against external volatility, particularly from the US tariff agenda.

Yet not all segments of the French economy are shielded from the tariff fallout. Regions such as Burgundy, home to numerous iconic French winemakers, are experiencing the strain from the current 10% tariff increase, with looming threats of it escalating to 50% on all EU goods. Unlike other sectors, French wine is profoundly exposed: the US accounted for a quarter of France's wine exports last year, rendering the industry especially vulnerable to shifts in American trade policy.

French businesses are increasingly examining North African markets as strategic alternatives. Morocco has witnessed a 78% increase in credit report views from French companies, potentially reflecting interest in the country's proximity, established trade infrastructure, and cultural ties. Morocco's automotive and aerospace sectors are attracting particular attention as French manufacturers explore nearshoring possibilities that maintain geographical convenience whilst diversifying beyond US dependence.

Tunisia similarly presents opportunities, with report views climbing 63%, possibly indicating French interest in the country's emerging manufacturing capabilities and preferential trade status with the EU.

In the Netherlands, the tariffs aren't merely headlines. They're cutting directly into the foundation of Dutch industrial output.

The Netherlands sits at the heart of transatlantic supply chains and ranks amongst the least insulated economies from the fallout of the US tariffs. Its role as a major logistics and distribution hub leaves it highly exposed, especially in its manufacturing sector. With 25% tariffs now applied to steel, aluminium, cars, and car parts, and with a potential 50% spike, the sector is already experiencing the strain. Dutch GDP has contracted by an estimated 1%, and further deceleration is anticipated as exports weaken and investment diminishes.

Our credit report usage intelligence may signal a sharp rise in caution amongst Dutch businesses, with a 43% increase in US company report views in 2025 compared to the previous year, possibly indicating heightened scrutiny of American suppliers and customers.

Conversely, US businesses are also taking a closer look, with a 23% uptick in monitoring Dutch partners. This may suggest that trust is being stress-tested on both sides of the Atlantic, leading transatlantic trade to gradually alter its supply and distribution course.

For major Dutch multinationals like Philips, the US remains a critical market. However, their American exports are experiencing strain too, not merely from EU-US trade tensions, but also from escalating geopolitical rivalries between the US and China. In response, Philips has begun localising much of its China-sourced imports into the US, amplified production of products like Respironics breathing masks, electric shavers, and toothbrushes within the US, and adjusted prices to absorb costs from the tariffs.

Soaring supply chain costs across both hubs have compelled the company to adopt emergency pricing measures and fast-track supply chain adjustments to maintain competitiveness.

Brussels and Washington DC may communicate through diplomacy, but tariffs tell a different narrative. For numerous Belgian businesses, it's no longer business as usual since the day tariffs were first announced.

Belgium's pharmaceutical and chemicals sectors face the steepest tariff impact. When President Trump announced on March 25 that the EU could face tariffs up to 200% for failing to modify trade policies he deems economically harmful to the US. Since then, Belgian exports to the US surged 46% compared to the previous year and more than doubled February's figures—with pharmaceutical shipments driving the majority of this rush. Companies weren't waiting for formal tariff implementation; they were front-loading exports while the window remained open.

Belgian pharmaceutical companies are increasingly examining partnerships with Indian manufacturers. Credit report views on Indian pharmaceutical companies rose 103% in the first quarter of 2025, potentially reflecting Belgium's interest in India's world-leading generic drug manufacturing capabilities and cost efficiencies. With India producing approximately 20% of the world's generic medicines, Belgian firms may be exploring collaborative arrangements that could provide both market access and production alternatives.

Additionally, Gulf Cooperation Council markets are attracting attention, with report views on Saudi Arabian and UAE healthcare companies climbing 76% and 69% respectively, possibly indicating Belgian pharmaceutical interest in these rapidly expanding healthcare markets with substantial government investment in medical infrastructure.

No one is spared in the tariff trade war and some iconic Italian brands and businesses are a testament to this. From high-end automakers adjusting price tags to luxury fashion brands witnessing a sharp drop in demand, the financial toll is becoming increasingly evident. Paired with mounting losses in wine and cheese exports, the ripple effects of the tariffs combined are pushing Italy’s global brands to reconsider their pricing strategies, market focus, and supply chain resilience. The sectors facing most of the tariff blows are:

• Automotives: Much like the German Automotive industry, the possible 25% tariffs on EU-produced cars and car parts have set off Italian automakers in a frenzy. A 25% tariff could raise the cost of exported vehicles by approximately €101.5 million, potentially triggering a 15–20% decline in demand and slashing export revenues by €61–81 million. This has prompted luxury auto giants like Ferrari to increase prices to compensate for the lost revenue on tariffs. Other brands like Stellantis are preparing for the severe plunge in demand following the hike in prices due to tariffs.
  
  
• Wine and Cheese Exports: Similar to France, Italian food products like Parmigiano Reggiano and olive oil as well as wine are a part of heritage exports that amount up to €2 billion but now face a potential €500 million loss due to the tariffs.
  
  
• Luxury Goods Exports: Italy’s luxury industry, producing handbags, shoes, fashion items, and wine among other prized goods, is also highly exposed to the US market. Fashion is Italy’s second largest industry and many of its heritage luxury brands credit American exports for up to a quarter of their overall revenue. Forbes reported that Prada, for example, generated some 17% of its revenues in the Americas last year, Moncler relied on the US market for 14%; while Gucci owned by Kering, attributed 24% of its profits to American exports.

For these luxury behemoths, it isn’t just the aspiration buyers or the regular consumers but also the high-net-worth individuals who may be backing out of bookings with apparent fewer accessory and jewellery splurges – hinting at lowered consumer demand from all segments of their sales base.


Our credit report usage data show an 11% rise in views of US business reports by Italian companies. More strikingly, April 2025 saw sharper increases in interest toward India (up 19%), Mexico (9%), and ASEAN countries (43%) — figures that appear to outpace those of most EU peers. This trend could signal a strategic pivot by Italian businesses toward these regions as alternative hubs for production, sourcing, and customer growth amid the disruption caused by new US tariffs.

This shift aligns with recent messaging from Italy’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, which has emphasised the dual need to reinforce traditional ties with European and American markets while proactively expanding into high-potential emerging economies across Asia, Latin America, and Africa.

Italian luxury brands are intensifying their focus on alternative high-net-worth markets. Despite broader US-China trade tensions, credit report views on Chinese luxury retailers and distributors increased 58% from Italian companies, potentially reflecting continued interest in China's substantial luxury consumer base, particularly in tier-one and tier-two cities where appetite for European premium brands remains robust.

India's luxury market is garnering unprecedented attention, with report views surging 127% in early 2025. India's expanding affluent population and growing appetite for international luxury brands present compelling opportunities for Italian fashion houses and automotive manufacturers seeking to reduce American market dependence.

The Gulf states represent another focal point, with credit report views on UAE and Saudi Arabian luxury retailers climbing 91% and 84% respectively. These markets offer not only wealthy consumer demographics but also strategic positioning for broader Middle Eastern and North African regional distribution.

Mexican luxury retail is experiencing heightened scrutiny from Italian brands, with report views increasing 76%, potentially reflecting Mexico's proximity to luxury manufacturing facilities and its growing upper-class consumer segment. Mexico City, Monterrey, and resort destinations like Los Cabos represent attractive markets for Italian luxury positioning.

Brazil continues to attract attention despite economic challenges, with report views rising 69%. São Paulo's sophisticated luxury retail environment and Brazil's cultural affinity for European fashion make it an attractive alternative market for Italian brands seeking geographic diversification.

The intelligence reveals a particularly compelling narrative: European businesses are not simply seeking replacement markets; they're pursuing strategic repositioning towards the so-called Global South. Markets in India, Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa are no longer considered secondary or long-term opportunities. They're becoming immediate priorities in strategic planning.

India, in particular, emerges as a consistent theme across multiple European industries. Whether automotive components, pharmaceuticals, luxury goods, or technology partnerships, Indian markets are experiencing unprecedented scrutiny from European enterprises. This potentially reflects recognition of India's demographic advantages, expanding middle class, improving business infrastructure, and government initiatives encouraging foreign partnerships.

Latin American markets, particularly Brazil, Mexico, and increasingly Colombia and Peru, are receiving similar strategic attention. These markets offer not only consumption opportunities but also potential production partnerships that could provide both geographic diversification and preferential access to other regional markets.

The Middle East, particularly the Gulf states, represents a third pillar of this diversification strategy. Beyond oil wealth, these markets are aggressively diversifying their own economies, creating opportunities for European expertise in manufacturing, technology, pharmaceuticals, and luxury goods whilst offering sophisticated logistics infrastructure for broader regional distribution.