The world is on fire. Not literally, of course, but economically and geopolitically it is churning like never before. What for many has long seemed like a "far-off show" is coming ever closer. Trade conflicts, resource scarcity and power shifts between global players are creating uncertainty and are now also touching the hearts of Belgian companies.
In the first episode of our talk show ImpactRadar, Hind Salhane talked to Eric Van den Broele, Director Research & Development at GraydonCreditsafe, about the impact of recent geopolitical developments on our economy.
The hidden agenda
The trigger for the conversation is Donald Trump's sudden "pause button" in the escalating tariff war. At first glance, the 90-day reprieve appears to be an attempt to bring calm, but according to Van den Broele, it is just part of a strategic negotiating game.
"Trump is using chaos as leverage to strengthen his negotiating position and rearrange the world economic order and currency relations in favour of the US and at the expense of Europe," he says.
So, what seems at first glance a short-term measure could be part of a larger plan, in which currency relations, trade flows and military dependencies are redrawn. In it, Europe is treated not as an ally but as a neutral player. Vulnerable and under pressure.
The real battle: resources
Yet there is more going on. While the world focuses on import duties and trade balances, an equally important conflict is unfolding in the background: the battle for strategic raw materials. Those rare earths are essential for wind turbines, electric cars and high-tech production, among other things
"Trump is remarkably actively interfering in areas such as Ukraine, Greenland and even the Congo-Rwanda crisis, each time with raw materials as the driving force," Van den Broele argues.
What is often seen as political or military interference may, in reality, be a well-thought-out strategy to make America industrially future proof.
Europe is in a vulnerable position in that global battle for strategic raw materials. Of the 30 critical materials that the European Commission considers essential for the future of its industries, as many as 21 are present in Ukraine. To this day, however, Europe is heavily dependent on China for the import of these raw materials, a dependency that strains its competitiveness.
To reduce that vulnerability, Europe is looking emphatically to Ukraine as an alternative source. But just then, the United States also interferes in the geopolitical game. Thus, Europe gets caught between two superpowers: China, the current dominant supplier, and America, which seeks to increase its influence through political and economic pressure and partially sidelines Europe. This US interference poses a real risk to Europe's supply and its strategic autonomy.
The impact on Belgian companies
The central question then is: what do these geopolitical upheavals mean for our Belgian companies? According to Van den Broele, we are at a crossroads. Companies will have to reposition themselves strategically and financially.
They need to look for new markets, develop alternative commodity chains, while coping with the current drop in sales associated with geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions. And that requires financial resilience.
In doing so, a classic financial health assessment based on liquidity and solvency is no longer sufficient. After all, it says little about the longer term.
"The real question is whether companies have sufficient redundant reserves to invest in new strategies and absorb temporary losses," says Van den Broele.
And there is the rub. An analysis by GraydonCreditsafe shows that although more than 80% of Belgian companies are operationally healthy, 30% of them have no reserves to cope with unexpected shocks. About half of that group can still fall back on bank financing, but the other half has run dry. This means that up to 15% of companies do not have the ability to adapt to the new economic reality. They are thus fundamentally vulnerable in this context of global reshaping.
You can find more about this in the study: