US tariffs flip-flops are forcing EU businesses to rewrite their trade playbook

Our findings suggest a fascinating pattern: while some EU businesses are moving swiftly with contingency plans to cushion immediate trade losses, others may be using this disruption as a catalyst for uncomfortable yet strategic moves to reduce long-term trade dependencies with the US. These businesses are not just reacting; they appear to be repositioning entirely. 

Here’s a brief low-down into the most impacted sector in major EU markets:

Earlier this year, Arnd Franz, CEO of German automotive giant Mahle, issued a stark warning: global car production is grinding to a halt under the pressure of tariffs compounded with bans on German combustion engines. With major trade agreements stalled, factory lines frozen across North America, and clients slashing orders, the industry is already teetering on the edge of a slowdown. The trade turbulence is evident in the behaviour of German businesses which are keeping a much closer eye on both existing and prospective U.S. clients and suppliers.

Our data shows a sharp 196% surge in credit report views on U.S. companies by German businesses in April 2025, soon after the tariff news got out: potentially indicating heightened risk awareness and a more cautious approach to trans-Atlantic trade.

German automakers now face a narrowing set of strategic options: absorb the cost, ramp up production on U.S. soil, or pivot toward friendlier shores. What was once frictionless access to a market that consumed over €38.9 billion worth of German vehicles and parts last year is now fraught with uncertainty.

Our credit report usage data could point to German businesses beginning to consider a renewed push to diversify exports, with markets like Mexico, Japan, and South Korea emerging as key alternatives. In April 2025 alone, report views on alternative markets meteorically surged compared to the same period last year: up 26.9% for Mexican firms, 45.7% for Japanese businesses, and a staggering 232.7% for South Korean companies. It’s not too much of a stretch to understand why diversification could no longer be a long-term strategy; it’s an immediate response to geopolitical risk.

French businesses occupy a relatively sheltered position in the tariff storm. With just a 1.1% GDP exposure to U.S. tariffs (well below Ireland’s 9.7% and Germany’s 2.21%). France has been spared the worst of the trade fallout. That buffer comes largely from its strong intra-EU export ties and a more domestically anchored, less export-reliant economy. Creditsafe’s monitoring risk data may reflect the broader trend toward intra-European trade.

French businesses ranked among the top three most monitored economies by key European trade hubs, including Italy, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, and even the UK. At the same time, French firms steadily increased their own monitoring activity across these same markets. This may signal a deliberate tightening of regional trade ties, as businesses double down on familiar, lower-risk partners within Europe to hedge against external volatility, particularly from the U.S. tariff agenda.

But not all corners of the French economy are shielded from the tariff fallout. Regions like Burgundy, home to many of France’s iconic winemakers are feeling the strain. Unlike other sectors, French wine is deeply exposed: the US accounted for a quarter of France’s wine exports last year, making the industry especially vulnerable to shifts in American trade policy.

In the Netherlands, the tariffs aren’t just a headline—they’re cutting directly into the core of Dutch industrial output. The Netherlands is at the heart of transatlantic supply chains and one of the least insulated economies from the fallout of the U.S. tariffs. Its role as a major logistics and distribution hub leaves it highly exposed, especially in its manufacturing sector. With 25% tariffs now applied to steel, aluminium, cars, and car parts, and with a potential 50% spike, the sector is already feeling the strain. Dutch GDP has dipped by an estimated 1%, and further slowdown is expected as exports weaken and investment dries up.

Our credit report usage data may signal a sharp rise in caution among Dutch businesses, with a 43% increase in U.S. company report views in 2025 compared to the previous year, possibly indicating heightened scrutiny of American suppliers and customers. On the flip side, US businesses are also taking a closer look, with a 23% uptick in monitoring Dutch partners. This may suggest that trust is being stress-tested on both sides of the Atlantic, leading transatlantic trade to slowly change its supply and distribution course.

For major Dutch multinationals like Philips, the US remains a critical market. However, their American exports are feeling the strain too —not just from EU–U.S. trade tensions, but also from escalating geopolitical rivalries between US and China. In response, Philips has begun localising much of its China-sourced imports into the US, amped up production of products like Respironics breathing masks, electric shavers, and toothbrushes within the US, and adjusted prices to absorb costs from the tariffs. Soaring supply chain costs across both hubs have forced the company to adopt emergency pricing measures and fast-track supply chain adjustments to stay competitive.

Brussels and Washington DC may speak in diplomacy, but tariffs tell a different story. For many Belgian businesses, it’s no longer business as usual since the day that tariffs were first announced.

Belgium's pharmaceutical and chemicals sectors face the steepest tariff impact. When President Trump announced on March 25 that the EU could face tariffs up to 200% for failing to modify trade policies he deems economically harmful to the US Since then, Belgian exports to the U.S. surged 46% compared to the previous year and more than doubled February's figures—with pharmaceutical shipments driving the majority of this rush. Companies weren't waiting for formal tariff implementation; they were front-loading exports while the window remained open.

No one is spared in the tariff trade war, and some iconic Italian brands and businesses are a testament to this. From high-end automakers adjusting price tags to luxury fashion brands seeing a sharp drop in demand, the financial toll is becoming increasingly clear. Paired with mounting losses in wine and cheese exports, the ripple effects of the tariffs compounded are pushing Italy’s global brands to rethink their pricing strategies, market focus, and supply chain resilience. The sectors facing most of the tariff blows are:

• Automotives: Much like the German automotive industry, the possible 25% tariffs on EU-produced cars and car parts have set off Italian automakers in a frenzy. A 25% tariff could raise the cost of exported vehicles by approximately €101.5 million, potentially triggering a 15–20% decline in demand and slashing export revenues by €61–81 million. This has triggered luxury auto giants like Ferrari to increase prices to compensate for the lost revenue on tariffs. Other brands like Stellantis are preparing for the severe plunge in demand following the hike in prices due to tariffs.
• Wine and cheese exports: Similar to France, Italian food products like Parmigiano Reggiano and olive oil as well as wine are a part of heritage exports that amount to up to €2 billion but now face a potential €500 million loss due to the tariffs.
• Luxury goods exports: Italy’s luxury industry, producing handbags, shoes, fashion items, and wine among other prized goods, is also highly exposed to the U.S. market. Fashion is Italy’s second largest industry and many of its heritage luxury brands credit American exports for up to a quarter of their overall revenue. Forbes reported that Prada, for example, generated some 17% of its revenues in the Americas last year, Moncler relied on the US market for 14%; while Gucci owned by Kering, attributed 24% of its profits to American exports.

For these luxury behemoths, it isn’t just the aspiration buyers or the regular consumers but also the high-net-worth individuals who may be backing out of bookings with apparent fewer accessory and jewellery splurges – hinting at lowered consumer demand from all segments of their sales base.

Our credit report usage data show an 11% rise in views of US business reports by Italian companies. More strikingly, April 2025 saw sharper increases in interest toward India (up 19%), Mexico (9%), and ASEAN countries (43%) — figures that appear to outpace those of most EU peers. This trend could signal a strategic pivot by Italian businesses toward these regions as alternative hubs for production, sourcing, and customer growth amid the disruption caused by new US tariffs.

This shift aligns with recent messaging from Italy’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, which has emphasised the dual need to reinforce traditional ties with European and American markets while proactively expanding into high-potential emerging economies across Asia, Latin America, and Africa.