Our scores, limits and global data availability

Introduction

We recognise that these are extremely challenging times. Whilst our working locations may have changed, our commitment to our customers has not, and we want to reassure our clients that we will continue to support them in as many ways as possible.

As a global leader in business information, we have always prided ourselves on providing first-class, accurate, real-time risk information about customers and suppliers. This is to inform customers of the measures we are implementing to ensure that they continue to receive the same level of service quality and reliable information from us.

Our scores and limits

Scores & Limits

The situation we all are in right now will continue to impact us in different ways. It is and will be a tough time for many companies, which is why our aim is to help as many of our customers as possible to regain stability, control and insight.

Our generic scorecards are an important tool and a foundation for many credit decisions, and will continue to be so. It is, therefore, highly important for us to ensure we continue to maintain predictive scores.

There are and will continue to be changes in the market, and we need to and will monitor our evaluations carefully. Based on previous crisis and scorecard validations, the scorecards ranking from low to high risk remained stable. This means that a company with a high score will still have a lower risk than a company with a lower score. But, the corresponding risk for each score did increase and deviate from predicted and the scores did underestimate the risk.

From previous experiences and analysis, we assume our scorecards will continue to rank the companies from low to high risk. However, the situation right now means the risk will most likely increase. We strongly believe in providing statistical scorecards based on facts, historical data and modelling. This is our preferred way forward to ensure stability and control.

Our current actions include:

1)    Not amending our underlying scorecards, nor our scores or limits. As we continue to monitor the development of the situation carefully, we will, if and when possible, make any adjustments required. This is currently not yet possible due to a lack of data. A manual change of the scores will harm the scorecard ranking, and this is not an option.

2)    We will, on some occasions, have the possibility to suspend a score if new information becomes available. This will be done carefully and only based on factual information.

3)    We suggest that our customers adjust their risk strategy to this new situation. We assume that our scores will underestimate the coming risk; hence it is important for users in different industries to amend their internal policies taking into consideration their exposure, knowledge and the government packages available to them.

4)    We will continue to be proactive in having an open dialog with our customers and providing support and advice. If there is anything we can do to help, we urge our customers to let us know. We are all in this together.

To summarise;

We believe our scorecards will still rank from low to high risk, but are yet to estimate the extent and level of risk. It is highly likely that the scores are currently underestimating risk, and we strongly suggest that all our customers make customised changes accordingly.

Government packages around the world are also expected to have a positive impact on companies. As the impact of this is yet to be assessed, we would recommend that customers continue to rely on our current information and make adjustments as they see fit.

We will continue to monitor the situation very closely and if changes are deemed necessary then we will adjust accordingly and ensure to communicate this to our customers. This cannot be achieved (whilst maintaining predictability) at this moment in time, as there is not enough empirical data to make sound statistical analysis and decisions.

It’s important to note that although our scoring models are built on historic data, we also collect and analyse real-time invoice data to understand how individual companies and sectors are paying their suppliers. We’ve also increased the monitoring of local media in each country to identify and assess negative corporate press.

Our data

Data is at the heart of everything we do. We consume millions of rows of data each day from hundreds of sources around the globe to build and maintain the largest global database of highly accurate, trusted company intelligence.

Collecting and processing this data is by no means an easy task, and current circumstances are causing unprecedented disruptions to some suppliers of key credit risk data, such as courts and local registries. This is inevitably affecting the volume of data we receive and the speed at which we receive it.

  1. Local Courts

    Some courts are unable to operate and have either temporarily shut down or are operating at a reduced capacity. This means that Court Judgments, Suits, Liens, Bankruptcy and Insolvency data may be delayed in some countries – however, in many cases this is not country-wide. Commercial judgment data does not typically come from a single court – therefore, we continue to receive the majority of data in most countries.

  2. Local Registries

    A slowdown of information received from local registries indicates that companies are struggling to file official statements on time and some registries are operating with a reduced level of resources. Some registries are allowing companies to extend their filing date, which may mean delays in updated financial reporting on certain companies.

It’s important to note that if the information is not being supplied by local registries and/or courts then no other credit information provider will receive this data. Fortunately, we process data from hundreds of additional sources, including the processing of invoices raised by our customers, to understand which companies are still actively trading. We will monitor this data closely to ensure our customers are alerted of any potential risk at the earliest possible opportunity.

As developments continue across the globe we are closely monitoring the supply of data in all our territories. A more detailed view on possible data disruptions by country is available below.

Current status of data availability by country.

We invite our customers to review the current status of data availability by country below.

United Kingdom

Registry Data – Presently, no delays or shutdowns have been reported yet at the local registry. However, we are monitoring the situation daily for any changes. It is likely there will be fewer publications now and in the near future posted to the local registry, due to some company closures. However, Companies House is largely based on e-filings and is therefore not expecting large reductions in volumes.

Adverse Data – Courts are slowing down and fewer hearings are being carried out at the moment. We are currently still receiving information on Judgments since the majority of Judgments are now lodged online. At this stage, the only reductions expected are based on the claimants lodging the judgments, rather than the courts processing the Judgments. 

Useful Links:

Coronavirus guidance for Companies House customers, employees and suppliers.

COVID-19: guidance for employees, employers and businesses.

Belgium

Registry Data - No delays or shutdowns have been reported yet at the local registry. However we are monitoring the situation daily for any changes. It likely there will be fewer publications now and in the near future posted to the local registry due to some company closures.

Adverse Data – Most courts are now closed, and only urgent cases will be processed. We expect to receive a lower volume of adverse data during this period. 

Useful Links:

Support measures and News Regarding Coronavirus.

Ten measures to support companies and the self-employed after COVID-19.

France

Registry Data - The supply of data from INSEE has slowed down as there are fewer publications being submitted. We also expect delays in processing the data by the registry.

No financial data is currently being provided by INPI’s open-sourced data stream during this time. There is also a reduction in the publication of financial data we are receiving from other official sources like Infogreffe during the last week.

 

Adverse Data – Most courts are now closed, and therefore only urgent cases will be processed. We expect a lower volume of adverse data during this period. We have also observed a reduction of gazette notices during the last week, as fewer notices are being published.

Currently, there are no delays on the official Bodacc data, although the supply of this data has historically been slow irrespective.

Republic of Ireland

Registry Data - No delays or shutdowns have been reported yet at the local registry. However, we are monitoring the situation daily for any changes. It likely there will be fewer publications now and in the near future posted to the local registry due to some company closures.

Adverse Data – We have noticed a delay and slowdown in the number of Gazette notices received for companies in Ireland and we expect to receive a lower volume of adverse data in the coming weeks.

Denmark

Registry Data – Expected delays in the registry for financial data and other information being submitted and processed. We have been receiving low volumes of financials from the local registry due to the COVID-19 situation.

Adverse Data – No delays or shutdowns have been reported yet. We are monitoring the situation daily and have not observed any reduction in volumes.

Useful Links:

Registry Coronavirus Notifications.

Germany

Registry Data - No delays or shutdowns have been reported yet at the local registry. However, we are monitoring the situation daily for any changes. It likely there will be fewer publications now and in the near future posted to the local registry due to some company closures.

Adverse Data – Most courts are now closed, and therefore only urgent cases will be processed. We expect a lower volume of adverse data during this period. There is also a potential change to the insolvency process in Germany, details of which have been provided below:

Useful Links:

Effects of the coronavirus: information and support for businesses.

Italy

Registry Data - No delays or shutdowns have been reported yet at the local registry. However, we are monitoring the situation daily for any changes. It likely there will be fewer publications now and in the near future posted to the local registry due to some company closures. The Italian government is considering extending the current period of 180 days for the publication of the accounts, though no official information regarding this has been released yet.

 

Adverse Data – Infocamere, the local registry, has advised us to expect decreases of protesti & insolvency registrations at the moment.

Useful Links:

Italian NPLs and UTPs: Conversion into tax credits of Deferred Tax Assets. associated with tax losses carried forward and other deferred deductions.

Official MEF News regarding Coronavirus. 

Norway

Registry Data - No delays or shutdowns have been reported yet at the local registry. However, we are monitoring the situation daily for any changes. It likely there will be fewer publications now and in the near future posted to the local registry due to some company closures.

 

Adverse Data – No delays or shutdowns have been reported yet. We are monitoring the situation daily and have not observed any reduction in volumes.

Useful Links:

Coronavirus disease - information.

Economic measures in Norway in response to COVID-19.

USA

Registry Data - No delays or shutdowns have been reported yet at the local registry. However, we are monitoring the situation daily for any changes. It likely there will be fewer publications now and in the near future posted to the local registry due to some company closures.

 

Adverse Data – Currently some courts are closed across the US, which will affect suits liens and judgement filings in certain states. As of this point, there are no bankruptcy court closures so this service should remain relatively un-impacted.

Useful Links:

Coronavirus: Resources, Updates, and What You Should Know.

The Netherlands

Registry Data - No delays or shutdowns have been reported yet at the local registry. However, we are monitoring the situation daily for any changes. It likely there will be fewer publications now and in the near future posted to the local registry due to some company closures.

Adverse Data – The local insolvency register is currently closed until the 06/04/2020. Most courts are now closed, and therefore only urgent cases will be processed. We expect a lower volume of adverse data during this period. 

Useful Links:

The coronavirus and your company: government measures to help businesses.

Sweden

Registry Data - No delays or shutdowns have been reported yet at the local registry. However we are monitoring the situation daily for any changes. It likely there will be fewer publications now and in the near future posted to the local registry due to some company closures.

Adverse Data – No delays or shutdowns have been reported yet. We are monitoring the situation daily and have not observed any reduction in volumes.

Useful Links:

Coronavirus's impact on delay fees.

Our advice for increased protection

We currently recommend that customers take additional measures to ensure they are not exposed to increased amounts of risk and can continue to provide trade credit where possible.

Companies should review existing credit policies and adjust where needed. To trade on the side of caution, companies should consider increasing the minimum score needed to approve a customer. For example, if customers with a score of C are typically accepted, we would recommend increasing the cut-off to a B until the economy is stable again.

We also urge companies to continue to monitor customers and suppliers closely and identify those within high-risk industries. It’s also important to review and take government policies into consideration as we are seeing unprecedented support by local governments to help support businesses during these difficult times.

Businesses that are concerned about commercial credit risk can talk to a member of our team about any of the information contained within this document. Please contact us on +46 (0)31-725 50 00 or email [email protected] – our team of experts are at hand to help in any way they can. 

How Creditsafe can help?

During these turbulent times, it is more important than ever to assess the companies you do business with. If we can help with any of the below please complete the form and we will get in touch.

  1. Monitoring your customer and suppliers

    Now more than ever, in this volatile time, it is crucial you are actively monitoring your entire customer and supplier base and setting up monitoring alerts to notify you of any changes.

  2. Review credit policies

    We highly recommend that you review your current credit policies in light of the ever-changing economic environment. Consideration must be given to industries and government assistance packages. If you would you like our team to help you with this please let us know.

  3. Personalised training

    We can provide a complete overview of your services and answer any questions you have about them.